How accurate were EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts?
Every October, in our Winter Fuels Outlook, we publish forecasts for residential energy consumption, prices, and expenditures for the upcoming winter months. Generally, these forecasts have performed well. Our October forecasts for energy expenditures during the five-month period from November 2023 through March 2024 were within 3% of our final estimates for homes primarily heated with natural gas, electricity, and propane. Estimated energy expenditures for homes primarily heated with heating oil were 13% lower than our October forecast because of mild winter weather and lower-than-expected crude oil prices.Every October, in our Winter Fuels Outlook, we publish forecasts for residential energy consumption, prices, and expenditures for the upcoming winter months. Generally, these forecasts have performed well. Our October forecasts for energy expenditures during the five-month period from November 2023 through March 2024 were within 3% of our final estimates for homes primarily heated with natural gas, electricity, and propane. Estimated energy expenditures for homes primarily heated with heating oil were 13% lower than our October forecast because of mild winter weather and lower-than-expected crude oil prices. Read More
